Casino: Oddo BHF confirms 'underperform' rating

(CercleFinance.com) - Oddo BHF is maintaining its Underperform rating on Casino shares, with a target price of E0.
05, after Casino announced its 2028 strategic plan, against a backdrop of financial constraints.

Announced in November, the plan dubbed 'Renouveau 2028' targets a
sales CAGR of 0.8% over 2024/2028 (vs. +3.7% for GMV) with the continued transformation of its store base towards more franchises (from 83% franchised to 90% in 2028).

However, even though the group managed to achieve this (perfect execution and stable underlying market), it would still be too indebted for a rerating, the analyst says, who believes that, in any case, a further restructuring and/or capital increase will be necessary to bring it back into line with market financial standards.

By (generously) applying the same EV/EBITDA or EV/EBIT multiples as Carrefour, Casino's valuation would be negative up to and including 2028. In order to justify the current share price, we would have to use EBITDA 2031 with a 2025 multiple discounted to today, the broker concludes.


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